The formula
- Contribution per order = AOV − product cost − shipping − AOV × fees % − AOV × returns %
- Contribution margin = contribution per order ÷ AOV
- Break-even ROAS = 1 ÷ contribution margin
- Break-even CPA = contribution per order
- Target ROAS for a profit of P% of revenue = 1 ÷ (contribution margin − P)
How to use it
- Use per-order averages from the last 60–90 days: average order value, landed product cost, and what you pay to pick, pack and ship.
- Add payment processing and the share of revenue you refund. Leave out fixed costs like rent and salaries — they do not change with one more order.
- Set the ROAS target in your ad accounts at or above the target ROAS, not the break-even line.
Worked example
An $80 order with $28 of product cost, $8 of shipping, 3% payment fees and 5% returns leaves $37.60, a 47% contribution margin. Break-even ROAS is 2.13× and break-even CPA is $37.60. To keep 10% of revenue as profit after ads, the target ROAS is 2.70×.
Questions
How do you calculate break-even ROAS?
Divide 1 by your contribution margin. A 50% margin gives 2×, a 33% margin gives 3×, a 25% margin gives 4×.
Is break-even ROAS the same as target ROAS?
No. Break-even ROAS leaves zero profit after ads. Target ROAS adds the profit you want on top: 1 ÷ (contribution margin − desired profit margin).
Should I use gross margin or contribution margin?
Contribution margin. Gross margin ignores shipping, payment fees and returns, which makes the break-even line look lower than it is.
What is break-even CPA?
The contribution per order: the most you can pay to acquire one order without losing money on it. If customers come back, you can afford more — that is what LTV-based targets account for.